South Sudan — Collapse of the Peace Process and Renewed Risk of Civil War
Implementation fatigue and rising violence threaten to reverse fragile peace gains.
Updated 12 Nov 2025 | Location: Juba · Upper Nile · Unity · Jonglei · Warrap States
At a Glance
| Status | Implementation of the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement has stalled; localized violence and humanitarian needs are rising. [UNMISS; ReliefWeb] |
| Period Covered | Dec 2013 – Nov 2025 (current relapse phase) |
| Lead Actors | Government of South Sudan (SPLA-IG); SPLM/A-IO under Riek Machar; community militias; IGAD; AU; UNMISS. |
| Affected Civilians | ≈ 9.4 million people (≈ 75 %) require assistance; 4.2 million displaced. [OCHA; ReliefWeb] |
| UN / Regional Mechanisms | R-ARCSS (2018); CTSAMVM monitoring; UNMISS; IGAD mediation; AU Hybrid Court initiative. |
Timeline of Key Events
- Dec 2013 — Civil war erupts following political divisions within the SPLM.
- Sept 2018 — Revitalized Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS) signed; formation of a transitional government planned.
- 2021 – 2024 — Security arrangements and power-sharing provisions experience repeated delays; communal violence increases. [UNMISS]
- Nov 2025 — UN Security Council briefing notes that peace implementation has “effectively halted.” [UNSC S/2025/706]
Metrics & Indicators
| Indicator | Baseline | Current Status | Target (Five Actions) |
| Durable ceasefire in place | Nationwide ceasefire (2018) | Frequent localized violations; limited verification capacity. [CTSAMVM] | Verified cessation of hostilities through independent monitoring. |
| Humanitarian access | Partially restricted since 2018 | Access remains uneven; some convoys require airdrops or river routes. [OCHA] | Guaranteed safe humanitarian corridors. |
| Food security / malnutrition | Chronic insecurity since 2016 | ≈ 7 million people in IPC 4–5 crisis levels. [FAO; WFP] | Stabilised food supply and nutrition coverage. |
| Displacement | ≈ 2 million (2017) | ≈ 4.2 million (1.9 M IDPs + 2.3 M refugees). [UNHCR] | Stabilisation and voluntary returns. |
| Estimated people affected | ≈ 6 million (2018) | ≈ 9.4 million (75 %) in need. [OCHA] | Reduced below 5 million with sustained access. |
| Information environment | Limited press freedom | Civic space constrained; journalists report harassment. [UNMISS HRD] | Transparent and verifiable public reporting environment. |
Situation Overview
According to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and independent monitors, progress on the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement has been limited. The unification of armed forces remains incomplete, and delays in implementing security and constitutional reforms have contributed to renewed localised violence. Flooding, economic contraction, and high food prices continue to exacerbate humanitarian needs, while access restrictions persist in conflict-affected areas.
Why It Matters
South Sudan remains one of the world’s most fragile states, with conflict dynamics affecting regional stability and humanitarian operations across East Africa. Over 400 000 conflict-related deaths since 2013 highlight the cost of delayed peace implementation. Effective application of prevention, mediation, and accountability measures under the Five Actions could help prevent a return to nationwide conflict.
Application of the Five Actions
- Ceasefire Services Package – Deploy UN and regional verification teams within 72 hours of major violations to enhance transparency.
- Rapid Mediation Window – Support IGAD-led mediation with a flexible response mechanism for emerging local conflicts.
- Humanitarian Carve-Outs – Formalise safe humanitarian corridors and banking access for relief operations.
- UN-Tech Joint Cell – Use satellite data and open-source analysis to verify ceasefire compliance and access routes.
- Peacebuilding Fund – Recovery Window – Invest in community-based reconciliation and livelihood recovery initiatives.
Key Takeaways
- Implementation of the 2018 peace agreement remains incomplete; violence continues in several regions. [UNSC]
- Humanitarian needs affect roughly three-quarters of the population. [OCHA]
- Activation of the Five Actions could strengthen verification, humanitarian access, and early recovery. [UNMISS]
Likely Outcome
If the Five Actions are applied coherently, verified ceasefire monitoring and predictable humanitarian financing could reduce conflict incidents and stabilise key regions within six months. Continued inaction risks further deterioration and displacement.
Accountability Today
The Hybrid Court for South Sudan remains pending, and human-rights investigations rarely lead to prosecution. Civil-society groups report shrinking civic space and limited access to justice. [UNHRC; Amnesty Intl]
Accountability with the Five Actions Implemented
Enhanced transparency through UN-Tech dashboards and verified ceasefire data could support credible prosecutions and reconciliation. Public reporting and local peace mechanisms would improve confidence in national institutions.
Implementation Path
- Immediate (0–30 days): Deploy mediation and verification teams; open humanitarian corridors. [UNMISS]
- 30–90 days: Launch peacebuilding micro-grants and local recovery projects. [PBF]
- Quarterly: Publish UN-Tech Joint Cell dashboards tracking ceasefire and aid access. [OCHA; DPPA]
Sources
Sources are referenced for transparency only. All rights remain with the original publishers.
The Spirit of Dag – Reflection
“The Charter does not need rewriting; it needs remembering.”
– The Spirit of Dag
Applying the Five Actions with impartiality and transparency can turn that principle into practice.
